FanDuel Introduces Predicts as Betting Industry Eyes Event Trading Growth

Leading US online gambling operator FanDuel has recently announced it will be entering the prediction market space, with the debut of its FanDuel Predicts service across 50 states. Prediction markets let users trade contracts, which are binary yes/no questions based on the outcome of real-world events. They have become a booming business in the US in the past five years, largely thanks to being able to legally put money down on sports results from anywhere. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket took them from niche academic tool to a multibillion-dollar market, and now existing large online gambling operators like FanDuel are joining the market. 

Prediction contracts typically trade on a scale between $0 and $1. If a contract tied to a particular outcome is trading at $0.62, the market is effectively pricing in a 62% probability of that event occurring. Traders can buy or sell contracts at fluctuating prices until settlement, which occurs once the outcome becomes official. At settlement, contracts resolve to either $1 (if correct) or $0 (if incorrect), with the difference representing profit or loss.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, where operators build margin into fixed odds, event contract platforms function more like exchanges. Prices move based on supply and demand, and liquidity plays a critical role in determining how efficiently probabilities are priced. This exchange-style structure is one of the main reasons prediction markets fall under federal commodities regulation rather than state gambling oversight.

This article will look at the specifics of FanDuel's new platform, from a business perspective, but also from a wider angle of the entire gambling and financial markets. It will analyze FanDuel Predicts' chances of success and what its performance might mean for not only for FanDuel and parent Flutter but also the sector going forward. 

What Exactly is FanDuel Predicts, and Where is it Available? 

FanDuel launched its standalone Predicts app in late January. To deliver the service it has partnered with Chicago-based financial services firm CME Group, as it has to obtain the right commodities trading status that keeps prediction markets as trading and not considered betting. 

The distinction is more than semantic. Traditional sportsbooks operate under state-level gambling licenses, while event contracts are overseen federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That federal status allows platforms to operate across state lines without needing individual gambling licenses in each jurisdiction. However, it also exposes them to a different layer of regulatory scrutiny, particularly when contracts resemble traditional sports wagers too closely.

This structural difference is at the heart of ongoing legal challenges in several states, where regulators argue that sports-based event contracts blur the line between financial trading and gambling.

It rolled out a limited launch in a few select states in late 2025, but has now gone live in all 50 states. However, sports contracts will only be available in 18 states. That's because FanDuel already offers legal, regulated sports betting in 32 of them. It didn't want to step on its own toes with competition, and it also allows it to steer clear of potential regulatory concerns in states where it has a license. 

In all 50 states, customers can put money down on contracts such as the expected daily close prices of the S&P 500 or NASDAQ, or commodities like oil and gas. 18 states will have sports betting contracts, mostly states without any kind of legal sports betting. Including:

• California
• Texas
• Idaho
• Florida
• South Carolina
• Oklahoma
• Nebraska
• Minnesota
• Alabama
• Georgia

California and Texas, in particular, have long been targets for gambling operators as potential new markets, for both land-based and online gambling. So having sports contracts available could be a big revenue opportunity for FanDuel. Even in states without sports contracts, the company will hope its huge existing user base can help it tap into customers who haven't otherwise used prediction markets before. 

As new entrants compete for early market share, promotional incentives have become increasingly aggressive. Many users compare sign-up offers, fee structures, and contract availability before choosing a platform. Comparison resources that track these evolving promotions — including pages that list current FanDuel Predicts promo offers — have become a common starting point for users evaluating whether event trading platforms offer better value than traditional sportsbooks. Because the space is evolving rapidly, traders are paying closer attention not only to incentives but also to liquidity, contract diversity, and regulatory stability when selecting where to participate.

However, the Flutter Entertainment-owned brand launches well after the huge initial growth period of new competitors Kalshi and Polymarket. It also comes after rival sportsbooks Fanatics and DraftKings both launched prediction markets in late 2025. 

Prediction Markets Have Seen Explosive Growth 

Back in 2019, prediction markets were a niche way of gauging market opinion on global events. Studies have shown that when people put money down on an opinion, it tends to be their truthful opinion and can often lead to more accurate forecasting and polling. 

Platforms like Kalshi initially grew out of this space. However, following the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, billions of dollars were traded on the different outcomes, and prediction markets were emboldened to push expansion ever further. Today, up to 80% of the millions traded on platforms every day are on sports contracts. 

Estimates are that prediction markets traded some $50 billion in 2025, with a majority of that action taking place in the US. In 2024, total trading was around $900 million, which suggests an astonishing 50x growth of the market in just one year.

While some of these estimates vary depending on whether internal offsetting trades are counted in total volume figures, most analysts agree that 2024–2025 represented the sector’s most aggressive expansion phase to date.

This explosive growth, regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gambling regulators, has not gone unnoticed by lawmakers in individual states. The prediction market model, especially sports contracts, is currently under legal challenges in several states.

From a financial standpoint, prediction markets also represent a strategic hedge for sportsbook operators. Traditional sports betting operates on relatively thin margins and high promotional costs, particularly in competitive states. Event contract platforms, structured more like exchanges, may offer improved capital efficiency over time if liquidity stabilizes and promotional intensity declines.

For Flutter Entertainment, investing heavily in Predicts may serve two purposes: capturing new market share in currently untapped states and insulating the company from potential long-term shifts in how consumers engage with event-based speculation. If regulatory winds favor federal oversight over fragmented state-by-state gambling expansion, early positioning in event contracts could prove strategically valuable.

Is FanDuel's Entry too Late or Right on Time?

FanDuel is launching into a market where the overwhelming majority of market action goes through just two competitors. Something it will now be seeing from the other side, as it and DraftKings have been similarly (but not quite so heavily) dominant in the US sports betting space for nearly a decade now. Between them, the two US sports betting giants make up about 80% of the total handle each year. 

But, for prediction markets, the estimate is 90% to 97% of volume is through Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Where FanDuel may hold an advantage is not in first-mover status, but in brand familiarity and existing customer acquisition infrastructure. Kalshi and Polymarket built early liquidity, but they lack the massive sportsbook databases that FanDuel and DraftKings control. If even a small percentage of FanDuel’s sportsbook customers experiment with event contracts, that could materially shift volume distribution in the sector.

However, liquidity depth remains a major question. Early prediction market leaders benefit from network effects: tighter spreads, deeper markets, and faster price discovery. For FanDuel Predicts to compete effectively, it must quickly attract enough participation to prevent thin markets that discourage repeat trading.

Can FanDuel leverage its existing brand awareness to bring customers away from those two? Only time will tell. The company has been on a slide in share price over the past six months, despite showing consistent strong revenue growth, which many have put down to increased competition from prediction markets. 

Flutter is reportedly spending some $250 million on the initial rollout alone, so there is high pressure for it to do well - not only for the company itself but for the sports betting business. On the other hand, it's also a risky market. 

FanDuel’s entry comes at a pivotal moment for the industry. If Predicts gains traction and successfully converts sportsbook users into active contract traders, it could accelerate the normalization of event trading as a mainstream financial product. That outcome would likely pressure smaller operators and potentially consolidate market share among the largest brands.

If, however, liquidity fails to scale or regulatory challenges intensify at the state level, the sector could face a period of contraction or structural overhaul. In that case, early entrants may be forced to recalibrate their ambitions.

Either way, the launch of FanDuel Predicts signals that major gambling operators no longer view prediction markets as peripheral experiments. They are increasingly treating them as a core strategic battleground in the next phase of event-based wagering evolution.