Trading Strategies & Tech
US Treasury Yields Could Reach 6% as Global Bond Sell-Off Accelerates, deVere Warns
12 Oct 2026
deVere Group CEO Nigel Green says rising US debt issuance, persistent inflation pressures and renewed rate-hike expectations could push the 10-year Treasury yield toward 6%, with implications for equities, credit markets and household borrowing costs.
9 October 2026 — The US 10-year Treasury yield could climb toward 6% if the forces driving the current global bond sell-off continue, according to Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.
In commentary issued on 9 October, Green said the 10-year Treasury yield had moved above 5.35%, its highest level since April 2002, while the 30-year yield reached 5.73%.
He argues that investors focused on whether 5.5% represents a danger level may be underestimating the extent of the move.
Every force driving yields upward is still firing, and 6% on the 10-year is, we believe, now firmly within reach.
The forecast is deVere Group’s view rather than a certainty. However, the speed of the recent increase has raised broader questions about government borrowing, inflation, interest-rate expectations and how much pressure higher bond yields could place on other asset classes.
Treasury yields have climbed rapidly
According to deVere’s analysis, the 10-year Treasury yield stood around 4.70% in early August, compared with 5.35% in early October.
A year earlier, the yield was approximately 4.13%.
Green described the speed of that move as significant.
Bond markets rarely travel 65 basis points in two months without something shifting underneath.
Another move of roughly the same size would take the 10-year yield close to 6%.
Higher Treasury yields matter beyond the government bond market because US Treasury rates are widely used as reference points for borrowing costs and asset valuations across global financial markets.
US debt supply remains central to the pressure
One of deVere’s main concerns is the scale of US government borrowing.
The release says US national debt stands at approximately $40.1 trillion, while the federal deficit is projected at around $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026, equivalent to roughly 5.8% of GDP.
Net federal interest costs have also moved above $1 trillion, according to the figures cited in the commentary.
For bond markets, greater borrowing means a larger volume of Treasury securities must be absorbed by investors.
Green said:
Washington is selling debt faster than the world wants to absorb it.
The Treasury increased long-bond buybacks to $4 billion in August, according to deVere, although long-term yields continued to move higher afterwards.
Green argues that this suggests the underlying market pressure remains strong despite efforts to support liquidity.
Inflation and AI investment add another dimension
Inflation expectations are also influencing bond markets.
deVere points to energy costs and heavy investment associated with the AI infrastructure boom as factors that could support economic activity while also adding upward pressure to prices.
The release says markets were pricing an approximately 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December, while the real yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security was near 2.9%.
Higher real yields indicate that investors are demanding greater returns even after accounting for expected inflation.
Green said:
Bondholders want proper compensation for lending into that, and real yields near 3% show they’re finally getting it.
For investors, the combination of higher nominal and real yields changes the relative attractiveness of fixed income compared with other assets.
Higher bond yields could challenge equity valuations
US equity markets had continued to trade near record levels even as Treasury yields rose, according to the release.
Green warned that the combination could become increasingly difficult to sustain if bond yields continue moving higher.
Stocks at records while yields surge is a dangerous pairing.
A 6% Treasury yield would potentially give investors access to comparatively high returns from government debt without assuming the same level of corporate earnings risk associated with equities.
That does not automatically imply a stock-market decline, but it can affect how investors value future corporate cash flows and how they allocate money between stocks, bonds and other assets.
Higher yields can also make corporate financing more expensive, particularly for businesses refinancing debt or relying heavily on borrowed capital.
Credit markets also face pressure
Treasury yields form the foundation of many corporate borrowing rates.
When government bond yields rise, companies often face higher costs when issuing new debt, even before credit spreads are taken into account.
That can place pressure on leveraged businesses, private credit borrowers and companies with significant refinancing requirements.
deVere’s warning therefore extends beyond government debt itself.
If yields continue climbing sharply, higher financing costs could eventually affect investment, mergers and acquisitions, property markets and other areas sensitive to the price of capital.
Mortgages are already becoming more expensive
Households are also feeling the effects.
The release says US mortgage rates have risen to their highest level since November 2023, reflecting the broader increase in market interest rates.
Higher Treasury yields can feed through into mortgage pricing and other forms of consumer borrowing, increasing monthly financing costs for households.
At the same time, higher yields may benefit savers and investors holding fixed-income assets.
The effect therefore varies depending on whether an individual is primarily a borrower or a lender.
Strong Treasury auction demand has not stopped yields rising
The latest $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction reportedly cleared at approximately 5.3%, the highest yield for a 10-year sale since November 2000.
deVere noted that demand at the auction remained strong.
That is an important distinction.
The current sell-off does not necessarily mean buyers have disappeared from the Treasury market. Instead, investors may simply be demanding substantially higher yields to absorb the volume of debt being issued and compensate for inflation and interest-rate risk.
A potential 6% Treasury yield would reset the investment landscape
A move to 6% would represent a major change in the financial environment compared with the low-rate conditions that dominated much of the period following the global financial crisis.
Government bond yields influence the discount rates used to value companies, property and other long-duration assets.
They also affect borrowing costs for governments, businesses and households.
For investors, the question is therefore broader than whether Treasuries themselves offer attractive returns.
It is how a higher global cost of capital could reshape valuations across markets.
Green concluded:
Bond markets set the price of money for the entire world. When that price climbs this far, this fast, nothing valued against it really gets to stand still.
About deVere Group
deVere Group is an independent financial advisory organisation serving international, mass-affluent and high-net-worth clients.
According to the company, it has a global network of offices, more than 80,000 clients and approximately $14 billion under advisement.
